Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x251add8af31cae54e7502343bc6ac23c9e974751fcccf72352534e126b3dd410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 5,460$4,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.54 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,814$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.82 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 72c | 1,441$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.71 | 359 | 47.4%170 W · 189 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 7c | 1,037$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 28c | 787.35$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…1b34backed Yes | 22c | 714.37$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2f…c08dbacked Yes | 21c | 666.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 423.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked No | 72c | 411.29$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 410$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 27c | 185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 182.9$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Yes | 28c | 178.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 118 | 12.7%15 W · 103 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…c9e2backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yes | 26c | 90.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 70.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…587fbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 27c | 52.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 27c | 39.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 37.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,464 | 35.6%521 W · 943 L | -33.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…a006backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 935 | 35.2%329 W · 606 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-07-11?No won
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-07-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.