Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2565c77cc1335b1033e54f95009fca2fb69b3c1b8b76fca75885c3d4d46de8cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 14,693$11,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,422.55 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 23c | 7,966$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,145.09 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 22c | 6,795$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,310.2 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 17c | 2,214$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.51 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Yes | 21c | 1,604$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.54 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 60c | 1,578$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.37 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,421$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.79 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 79c | 1,099$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.09 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 76c | 1,082$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.34 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 55c | 1,046$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Yes | 73c | 878.45$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 73c | 832.24$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.8 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 718.23$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.43 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 75c | 700.46$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.05 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 34c | 580.18$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.1 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 25c | 543.08$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.94 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 19c | 522.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.64 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 27c | 503$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.19 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 67c | 486.66$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.12 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 17c | 473.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.96 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 460.66$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.29 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 48c | 369.41$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.6 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 71c | 340.04$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 71c | 332.83$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 31c | 301.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.47 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…de4abacked Yes | 73c | 289.8$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Yes | 29c | 286.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 30c | 246$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 74c | 241.14$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 80c | 214$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 206.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 24c | 190.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 67c | 149.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 70cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…0030backed Yes | 28c | 145.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12e…a14abacked No | 50c | 145.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed No | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 73c | 134.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 103.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 62c | 100.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 33c | 86.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Yes | 20c | 71.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…a061backed Yes | 42c | 65.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 33c | 60.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 80c | 58.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 47c | 58.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 27c | 46.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 55c | 45.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed No | 43c | 40.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 46c | 27.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 79cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.