NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257b46c7d2a4a88e687a48c5a8c0a7b634299b89e7509178ac03757c9b640d23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa898…8d2ebacked Over | 54c | 55,821$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,088$5,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,043.75 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 49c | 10,058$4,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,132.97 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 9,437$3,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,559.45 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 6,221$3,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,132 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 5,667$2,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,890.35 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 5,374$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,742.32 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 52c | 3,974$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.52 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 3,023$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.67 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 2,506$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.16 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,630$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 1,049$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.37 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…6302backed Under | 49c | 917.44$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 751.28$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.83 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 738.52$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 655.82$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.22 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 47c | 509.18$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.22 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 299.97$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.27 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 52c | 214.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 52c | 192.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Under | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 366 | 43.2%158 W · 208 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 51c | 117.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 50c | 115.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 110.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…1c1dbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Over | 49c | 92.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Under | 50c | 80.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc70…26c8backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…0f0dbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…1754backed Over | 53c | 39.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Over | 52c | 36.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 29.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 52c | 27.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 53c | 27.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 52c | 27.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Under | 49c | 24.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 21.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5this page
- Celtics vs. LakersCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Lakers: O/U 217.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.