Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25808fee889c41ebf38c22e84177f5e5636f105c32101622f331ba280bfb1258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.07 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 360.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 263.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 68c | 254.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 35c | 254.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 229.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 19c | 220.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 214.75$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 158.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 148.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 147.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…172dbacked No | 52c | 124$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 28c | 109.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 80c | 109.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 101.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 54c | 92.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 45c | 85.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 81.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 21c | 72.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 61.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 55.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed No | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 44c | 47.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 41.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 73c | 40.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 53c | 37.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 60c | 37.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes | 56c | 33.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 32.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 30.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 59c | 30.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 62c | 25.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 53c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 59c | 23.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 60c | 23.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 66c | 21.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.