MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2594e1544099d385ea598c8237778b7eb9e58f1b2da991bc21e5cdc4311368bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Minnesota Twins, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 79c | 12,914$10,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,692.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 37c | 8,072$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,986.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 6,613$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.29 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 63c | 6,432$4,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 20c | 1,653$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 59c | 1,313$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.46 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 1,024$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 848.3$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.32 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 11c | 778$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 532.76$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Athletics | 62c | 475.43$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.66 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 413.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 413.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 392.15$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 59c | 357.7$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Minnesota Twins | 8c | 337.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 320$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 59c | 305.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 80c | 212.04$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 62c | 154.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 152.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 15c | 102.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Athletics | 59c | 80.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 60c | 66.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 65.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 58.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 40.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…078bbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Athletics | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Athletics | 79c | 31.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Athletics | 62c | 29.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Athletics | 63c | 22.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Athletics | 62c | 21.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Athletics | 68c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.