MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe18f4f85f8959fd3b6b8529bfeb98e4d2726bde8e706d8af0fb073647e63cc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 49c | 130,327$63,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,429.31 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 65,268$34,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,363.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Under | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 19,957$9,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,393.15 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Under | 48c | 6,300$3,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,276 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 3,442$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,288$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 50c | 1,843$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.78 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 48c | 1,573$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Over | 51c | 1,065$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.14 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,016$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.75 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 892.81$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 48c | 780$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.6 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 691.93$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…d965backed Under | 48c | 630$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 617.31$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 606.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 47c | 586$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.58 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 51c | 501.8$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.88 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 451.53$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 417.59$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.44 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 403$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.32 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 49c | 356.8$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.97 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 50c | 292.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.17 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 286.09$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 50c | 282$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 47c | 276$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 220.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Over | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 50c | 127.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 125.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 50c | 97.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 52c | 96.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 49c | 83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 50c | 81.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Under | 54c | 77.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 52c | 76.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Under | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Under | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 54.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 51c | 50.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…2f02backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 38.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 47c | 33.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Under | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 51c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 51c | 27.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 53c | 27.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 50c | 25.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 50c | 21.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.