TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Athletics, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$168,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,663 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics52c23,805$12,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,409.6910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Minnesota Twins46c21,563$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00043554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins39c16,654$6,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,530.774,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics73c9,783$7,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,648.4111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics60c7,887$4,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,170.322,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins56c7,721$4,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,323.753,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Athletics44c7,500$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics53c7,246$3,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,412.288,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Minnesota Twins50c5,247$2,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623.569453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics58c5,056$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,147.358,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Athletics64c4,949$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.3595045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Minnesota Twins32c4,056$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.4579442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins55c2,887$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.964,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics63c2,304$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.861,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6451…b57abacked Athletics44c2,272$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.3214841.2%61 W · 87 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Minnesota Twins56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1201,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked Minnesota Twins56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12017150.3%86 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics70c1,967$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.768,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Athletics44c1,960$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.619951.8%103 W · 96 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics64c1,646$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.381,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Athletics43c1,515$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.6313048.5%63 W · 67 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins56c1,423$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.866,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Minnesota Twins56c1,365$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.41,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins49c1,261$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.4712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2002…a75ebacked Athletics45c1,021$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.5615751.6%81 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Minnesota Twins56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Minnesota Twins56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56029046.6%135 W · 155 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Minnesota Twins44c990.47$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.0543459%256 W · 178 L+19.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Athletics65c876.92$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.924667.4%31 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Minnesota Twins6c859.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509828.6%28 W · 70 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb81…1f15backed Minnesota Twins56c800$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44812448.4%60 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins33c755.23$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.89,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Athletics63c700$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.8136759.1%217 W · 150 L+26.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Athletics43c591$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.9657758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Athletics44c571$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.762,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd2a7…1fdbbacked Minnesota Twins54c545.33$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.481040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Minnesota Twins45c524.65$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0937546.9%176 W · 199 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Minnesota Twins61c488.54$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.7614752.4%77 W · 70 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Athletics60c483.21$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.8414860.1%89 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b5…7e9abacked Athletics44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.556946.4%32 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Athletics63c427.38$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6234952.7%184 W · 165 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Minnesota Twins46c410.68$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.939837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics42c388.19$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.155,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Athletics71c383.11$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.081,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins37c371.32$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.584,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c75…227fbacked Athletics46c347.83$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.836656.1%37 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Minnesota Twins20c346.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Athletics64c323.81$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6544651.6%230 W · 216 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Minnesota Twins57c315.79$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18039056.9%222 W · 168 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Athletics43c302.21$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.2675248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Athletics66c288.62$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1322867.1%153 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Athletics55c288.37$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.642,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Athletics67c275$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0780159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Minnesota Twins40c264.23$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2160348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Minnesota Twins57c263.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15027357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Minnesota Twins57c263$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9120944%92 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Minnesota Twins58c258.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15043247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Minnesota Twins40c256$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.071,29950.9%661 W · 638 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Athletics77c254$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.421,10079.6%876 W · 224 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins29c252.91$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.23,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Minnesota Twins57c240$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.88256.1%46 W · 36 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabe3…c19abacked Minnesota Twins57c234.47$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.654757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a46…c6a0backed Athletics45c215.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.749753.6%52 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics43c209.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.691,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Athletics39c207.17$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12752053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Minnesota Twins54c203.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11022055.5%122 W · 98 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Athletics43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1143,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Minnesota Twins21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4234045%153 W · 187 L+1.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Athletics55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9031844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Minnesota Twins50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013153.4%70 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins56c197.01$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.372,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Athletics52c192.87$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.461,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f9…6c15backed Minnesota Twins29c185$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.852040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Athletics45c179.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9385949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Minnesota Twins42c167.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.964,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Minnesota Twins44c160.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7012333.3%41 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed Minnesota Twins21c142.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3035652.5%187 W · 169 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Minnesota Twins33c142.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.491,12144.1%494 W · 627 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd94f…0cf5backed Athletics43c135.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74fc…492cbacked Athletics76c132.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.795576.4%42 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcecd…e781backed Athletics43c131.73$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.09650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Athletics43c130$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.11,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Athletics43c130$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.11,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Minnesota Twins56c129.05$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2726056.5%147 W · 113 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Athletics43c127.91$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9112244.3%54 W · 68 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Minnesota Twins57c122.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9711354%61 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Minnesota Twins50c120.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2773355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2561…ce3ebacked Athletics42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0525249.6%125 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b0…293fbacked Athletics42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.052450%12 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Minnesota Twins51c117.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.583221.9%7 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac6…a8cebacked Minnesota Twins43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507941.8%33 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Athletics43c116$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1240446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b16…358abacked Minnesota Twins44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Minnesota Twins32c113.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.071,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Athletics44c112.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9635047.4%166 W · 184 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins39c108.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.672,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Minnesota Twins56c107.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.371,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Athletics51c106.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3458060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.