Champions League · resolved market
Will FC Basel win on 2025-08-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f467abccfe237209d2b64c2efe7f0898e2b3fd7c2f393d3fa12282eef21f3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa0b…4908backed Yes | 40c | 59,477$23,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,780.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 60c | 55,555$33,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,222 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 57c | 4,763$2,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.4 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 63c | 4,232$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.22 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 51c | 3,699$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.37 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…56dfbacked Yes | 40c | 3,662$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…7654backed No | 60c | 3,662$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.99 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 56c | 1,258$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 59c | 1,252$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.07 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…5e4ebacked No | 60c | 1,059$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 41c | 1,008$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.85 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Yes | 65c | 786$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 59c | 576.25$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.32 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 48c | 548.02$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.31 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 45c | 499.26$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.22 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 56c | 479.59$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.02 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 57c | 460.41$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.31 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes | 61c | 281.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 40c | 276.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…0cefbacked Yes | 43c | 232.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 59c | 183$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8305…bee1backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 32c | 147.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…03cdbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 43c | 115.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Yes | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked No | 59c | 63.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…c640backed Yes | 41c | 55.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9261…9065backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +105%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd86…ab78backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…5468backed Yes | 51c | 39.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…854abacked No | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed No | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…95cbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Basel win on 2025-08-20?this page
- Will FC Basel vs. FC Kopenhagen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Kopenhagen win on 2025-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.