NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Spurs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26393e468bcba1d9677992d7dfd5f6d13f010562cffc1275d33e8a9707a68e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb00f…db97backed Spurs | 13c | 52,726$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Spurs | 14c | 10,551$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.14 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Spurs | 1c | 9,615$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Spurs | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Spurs | 3c | 3,758$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 297 | 38.7%115 W · 182 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Spurs | 3c | 3,400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Spurs | 5c | 3,353$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.35 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Spurs | 6c | 2,559$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Spurs | 12c | 2,226$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Spurs | 13c | 2,185$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.51 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +52.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Spurs | 3c | 2,135$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Spurs | 1c | 1,766$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Spurs | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Spurs | 12c | 1,411$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…00a7backed Spurs | 10c | 1,080$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 472 | 29.4%139 W · 333 L | -33.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Spurs | 9c | 1,002$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…56a3backed Spurs | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 321 | 30.2%97 W · 224 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Spurs | 1c | 954$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Spurs | 10c | 827.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Spurs | 12c | 699.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 613 | 45.5%279 W · 334 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Spurs | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Spurs | 4c | 660$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 143 | 4.9%7 W · 136 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Spurs | 7c | 470$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Spurs | 3c | 440$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Spurs | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…edf8backed Spurs | 12c | 392$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Spurs | 13c | 357.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed Spurs | 3c | 326.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 156 | 13.5%21 W · 135 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Spurs | 9c | 297.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Spurs | 10c | 269.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Spurs | 12c | 229.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 269 | 33.5%90 W · 179 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Spurs | 5c | 221.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Spurs | 14c | 207.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Spurs | 11c | 186.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 311 | 25.1%78 W · 233 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Spurs | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 398 | 43.5%173 W · 225 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Spurs | 11c | 171.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Spurs | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Spurs | 19c | 151.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 480 | 46%221 W · 259 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…f433backed Spurs | 14c | 115.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…46b2backed Spurs | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Spurs | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed Spurs | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…7768backed Spurs | 14c | 106.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Spurs | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 101 | 29.7%30 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…4356backed Spurs | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…9aa3backed Spurs | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Spurs | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Spurs | 13c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…04babacked Spurs | 14c | 94.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Spurs | 12c | 93.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 230 | 48.3%111 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Spurs | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Cavaliers | 78c | 57.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Cavaliers | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 191 | 64.9%124 W · 67 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.