Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x264bdfff82f7aa0e0d42c0a40492fbbc272a393c8bf6d72a8a358e9313020ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 4c | 864.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 656.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 507.71$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 487.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked No | 77c | 406$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 23c | 403.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 36c | 317.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…7c75backed Yes | 24c | 317.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 57c | 262.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 252.39$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 24c | 224.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 223.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 23c | 188.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 24c | 172.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 169.79$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 61c | 162$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 160.36$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 23c | 156.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 156.06$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 153.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…28edbacked Yes | 20c | 149.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 144.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 75c | 130.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 130.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 30c | 113.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 33c | 113.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 105.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 35c | 102.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 97.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed Yes | 28c | 95.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 93.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 32c | 89.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 68c | 85.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 27c | 80.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 32c | 77.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 61c | 76.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 30c | 74.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 73.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 54c | 68.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 25c | 65.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 64.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 26c | 63.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 57.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 34c | 56.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 50.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 49.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 49.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 46.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 51c | 43.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 37c | 40.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 46c | 38.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 34c | 38.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 39c | 36.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 40c | 36.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 64c | 36.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 39c | 35.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 50c | 34.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 33.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 31.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 35c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 27.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…e96abacked No | 77c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 66c | 26.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 46c | 24.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 22.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 70c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6a…3774backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 79c | 13.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.