Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d5ad7048b810986d44824f9428df89a2091478dca8da55b15b3baf5003136a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55f8…801ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,477$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,050$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 24c | 1,037$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.08 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 661.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 504.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 502.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked Yes | 9c | 343.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 10c | 312.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 312.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 11c | 298.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 6c | 256.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 8c | 250.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 9c | 237.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 11c | 205.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 205.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 8c | 190.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 171.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 11c | 166.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 12c | 157.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 11c | 154.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 144.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 14c | 126.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 79c | 126.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Yes | 11c | 122.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +162%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 24c | 119.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 26c | 117.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 11c | 106.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 91.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 24c | 84.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 26c | 79.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 80c | 18.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 78c | 17.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.