TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5208…ec3abacked Yes0c21,840$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.843636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79e7…b82cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes32c1,058$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.6886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c657.36$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.296,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes8c343$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.446219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c294.94$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.444,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes31c268.58$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2710120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d0…2295backed Yes39c258.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+89.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c245.11$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c212.37$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c200.51$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.751,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes28c200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c188.81$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes23c179.28$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.915228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes15c157.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.261,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes35c157.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes31c141.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.341,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes31c140.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.181,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c125.43$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c125$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.61,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes32c123.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed Yes26c121.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4730859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2512…9030backed Yes41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.97045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No66c110.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.861,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c110$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes24c109.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.223,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb02f…24aabacked Yes19c107.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.092615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c98.54$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.793,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes29c91.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5415334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes22c84.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2429137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477e…7d74backed Yes18c82.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099c…18e8backed Yes27c81.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.374818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No65c76.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7714961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No62c74.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes20c70.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes23c65.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No68c62.77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9559923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf138…befdbacked Yes34c59.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-72.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes30c58.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.594919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes48c58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.845326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes30c57.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.273560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c57.5$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes20c54.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0757545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No67c53.96$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No67c53.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.573,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…c5eabacked Yes38c51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.343616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes36c51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5219531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…d948backed Yes21c48.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes43c46.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes26c46.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.095841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed No65c45.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0315639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No53c43.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.431,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a42…9390backed Yes30c41.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No69c41.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.151,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes35c41.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.421,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes28c39.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.266735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes30c39.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126445.3%29 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc250…5eafbacked Yes27c37.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.126325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…b6ecbacked Yes45c37.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.77955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe46c…333bbacked No73c35.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.692070%14 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes31c35.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9714826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d5…7b83backed Yes31c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.854621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes33c33.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0647…fdf8backed Yes41c31.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No64c29.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.549250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes48c28.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.511,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes39c28.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.042128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c27.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.715,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed Yes39c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.145145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No76c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7616366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dbb…c0abbacked No67c22.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.349551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No61c18.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0632652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8746…f522backed No74c17.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.611748.7%57 W · 60 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed No79c16.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4429459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No72c13.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8929653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.