Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe8f52e4157b50d718d2bfd8b4bb6622a1e1418c861d8540951e1625a74ef242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed No | 1c | 70,030$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.65 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…075dbacked No | 0c | 19,485$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…bc37backed No | 0c | 7,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 1,049$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 14c | 955.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 2c | 654$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.27 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 31c | 622.85$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 28c | 532.39$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.86 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 468.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…adbabacked No | 30c | 460.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 67c | 414.2$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 389.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.69 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 372.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 349.87$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 15c | 333.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.3 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 296.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 296.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed No | 80c | 205$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 17c | 184.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 177.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 14c | 167.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 31c | 156.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 146.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 144.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 126.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 124.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…bdbfbacked No | 16c | 122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 120.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…3790backed Yes | 31c | 118.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 110.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 25c | 107.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…9390backed Yes | 31c | 100.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 26c | 91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 22c | 87.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 27c | 81.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…24aabacked Yes | 15c | 80.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 76.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 70.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 66.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 31c | 63.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 78c | 62.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 56.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 32c | 55.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 25c | 54.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…4eb3backed No | 79c | 50.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 32c | 47.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 38.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 37.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…c68dbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 32.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 76c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…854bbacked No | 32c | 31.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 76c | 23.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…818dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 73c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…333bbacked No | 80c | 15.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.