Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x269284d96d9a8910103b2829ce01c5ea078e12370e622652db088cab2c357ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 31c | 807.78$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.92 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…42cabacked Yes | 39c | 512$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 38c | 390.96$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.4 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 46c | 370.88$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.69 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 31c | 314.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.57 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 281.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 233.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 206$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 39c | 179.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 39c | 151.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 342 | 22.2%76 W · 266 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 122.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 120.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 63c | 114$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 126 | 26.2%33 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 31c | 106.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 102.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 61c | 96.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 65c | 88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 84.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 82.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 63c | 80.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 75.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 65.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 33c | 58.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 55.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 63c | 49.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 46.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 70c | 37.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 37.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked No | 70c | 36.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 31.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 30.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 68c | 30.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 45c | 29.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 28.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 69c | 22.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…7034backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.