Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6e8c63bfdc9492e7c2cf40a9f8bf2028711b53266b1fd9325c1ed06d0492371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1856…c488backed Yes | 0c | 11,251$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd5…f702backed Yes | 1c | 1,278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 32c | 592.22$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 458.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 59c | 364.84$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.58 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 30c | 237$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 61c | 226$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 212.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 18c | 172.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 66c | 148.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 27c | 147.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 144.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 138.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 1,048 | 68.7%720 W · 328 L | -33.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 33c | 137$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0124backed Yes | 70c | 126.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 113.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 112$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 102.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 58c | 97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 94.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 91.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 84.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 71c | 83.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 73.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 70.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…9fadbacked Yes | 25c | 60.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 59.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 30c | 55.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 49.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 48.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 47.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 71c | 44.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 42.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,184 | 54.9%650 W · 534 L | +49.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 38.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bc…0ac1backed Yes | 28c | 38.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 33c | 36.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 34.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 33.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 235 | 54%127 W · 108 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 28.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked No | 61c | 27.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 27.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 25.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 80c | 23.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…7034backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 75c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 353 | 69.4%245 W · 108 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed No | 72c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.