NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 214.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26acfb1441bafc6719c2a7e38e8a47f8003249ae3e536c7ae191d1a37df89d91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 0c | 12,139$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 8,405$4,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,130.61 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,432$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 2,292$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 51c | 2,255$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.95 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 1,600$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.73 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 51c | 994.12$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 49c | 515$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 50c | 499.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 427.53$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.83 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 48c | 253$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…bc44backed Over | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 181$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…eaf6backed Over | 49c | 134.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Over | 50c | 114.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 78.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 214.5this page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nuggets vs. BucksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 213.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 215.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.