NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34afc3079a31913712a0bb4b775f073bc0a80647022ec4ef0787cdf793e63fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Bucks, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Nuggets | 50c | 34,862$17,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,430.35 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks | 50c | 29,060$14,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,478.5 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Nuggets | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,199.97 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 51c | 14,000$7,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,090 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 51c | 12,096$6,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,139.81 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Nuggets | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Nuggets | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks | 47c | 7,002$3,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280.85 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 51c | 6,950$3,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,544.68 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 53c | 5,941$3,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,797.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bucks | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bucks | 51c | 3,905$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.74 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 54c | 2,778$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Nuggets | 59c | 2,663$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.77 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Bucks | 51c | 2,348$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.69 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Nuggets | 51c | 2,155$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.75 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 49c | 2,024$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.03 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Bucks | 47c | 1,900$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Bucks | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Bucks | 51c | 1,480$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.91 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Nuggets | 53c | 1,062$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Nuggets | 54c | 955.56$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.56 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Bucks | 47c | 909.43$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.43 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Nuggets | 55c | 636.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.35 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 600$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Bucks | 51c | 582.46$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.05 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Bucks | 48c | 558.69$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.17 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Bucks | 50c | 490.92$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.46 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Bucks | 51c | 490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…68ecbacked Bucks | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Nuggets | 80c | 377$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Bucks | 51c | 284.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd550…9228backed Nuggets | 49c | 203.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Bucks | 51c | 194.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Bucks | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Nuggets | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Nuggets | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Nuggets | 53c | 135.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 50c | 113.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…1ccbbacked Bucks | 46c | 113.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 112.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1896…a736backed Bucks | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Nuggets | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nuggets | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…e434backed Nuggets | 50c | 96.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Bucks | 34c | 92.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Bucks | 47c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Nuggets | 49c | 72.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Bucks | 50c | 53.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Nuggets | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bucks | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Bucks | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Bucks | 49c | 34.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nuggets | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…6e5bbacked Bucks | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-8.5)this page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nuggets vs. BucksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 213.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 214.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 215.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.