TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,386 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5cae…a00abacked Under53c2,205$1,169 inWon+$1,036.44465.9%29 W · 15 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Over47c2,168$1,014 inLost-$1,01418343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over18c1,663$293 inLost-$293.288,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8f…7c05backed Over50c777$389 inLost-$388.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Over45c480$216 inLost-$21642648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Under54c450.99$244 inWon+$207.4526839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c335.62$179 inWon+$156.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf2…4daebacked Under50c327$164 inWon+$163.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over49c318$156 inLost-$155.8240146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777c…39a8backed Under50c226$113 inWon+$1131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7d…d012backed Under50c224$112 inWon+$1121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over34c162.53$55 inLost-$54.823,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9644…d03bbacked Over42c162.4$69 inLost-$68.593345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over40c148.14$59 inLost-$59.252,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under59c147$87 inWon+$59.852,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under57c104.99$60 inWon+$45.36,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over42c60.23$26 inLost-$25.551,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under59c49$29 inWon+$20.121,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under61c40$24 inWon+$15.631947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under56c38.72$22 inWon+$16.923,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under60c33$20 inWon+$13.21,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Under57c20.93$12 inWon+$940960.6%248 W · 161 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe726…958ebacked Over50c20$10 inLost-$102846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.