NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b828cbb7182b87a875cef769a9ee317e8d777bdadeee82ad96c0a49d7e25112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Bucks, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks | 50c | 18,454$9,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,291.19 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Nuggets | 47c | 15,241$7,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,010.06 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets | 49c | 5,829$2,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,949.58 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Bucks | 51c | 5,744$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,918.35 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Nuggets | 50c | 5,442$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.89 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Bucks | 54c | 3,436$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.44 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 53c | 2,506$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 51c | 2,333$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.49 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Bucks | 55c | 2,065$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.77 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,970$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,800$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 47c | 1,783$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 52c | 1,400$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets | 48c | 1,169$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.18 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 52c | 847.68$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Nuggets | 45c | 760$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 47c | 515.96$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 54c | 503.53$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.91 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Nuggets | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…5a74backed Bucks | 55c | 362.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Nuggets | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Bucks | 55c | 302$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.97 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Nuggets | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Nuggets | 57c | 225.53$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Bucks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…0276backed Nuggets | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…6413backed Bucks | 52c | 169.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 121.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Nuggets | 46c | 112.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Bucks | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nuggets | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Nuggets | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Nuggets | 49c | 98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 47c | 73.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Nuggets | 45c | 72.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Bucks | 53c | 64.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Nuggets | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Nuggets | 45c | 59.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Nuggets | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…dd35backed Nuggets | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Nuggets | 50c | 48.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Bucks | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bucks | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…2924backed Nuggets | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Bucks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…d04abacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Bucks | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Nuggets | 49c | 37.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Bucks | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Bucks | 52c | 30.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Nuggets | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…c289backed Bucks | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nuggets | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…6e5bbacked Bucks | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)this page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nuggets vs. BucksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 213.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 214.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 215.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.