Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26ad333aec2abc7da8d2f65082ec39be73979355e6dcb918798ffaa8dfcc2d7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 32c | 4,308$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,913.58 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 34c | 586.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 34c | 554.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.44 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 418.86$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 306$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 206.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 185.12$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 31c | 181.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 176.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 167.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 165.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 151.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 145.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea7c…41f6backed Yes | 29c | 130.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 125.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 119.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 119.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 109.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 95.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 94.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 90.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 90.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 87.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 84.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 37c | 79.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 78.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 76.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 70.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 66.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 66.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 59.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 59c | 59.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 42c | 55.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 46c | 54.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 54.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 36c | 52.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 50.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 49.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 47.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 46.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 30c | 46.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 30c | 44.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 30c | 42.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 41.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 40.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 37.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 36.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 31c | 35.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 35.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 48c | 31.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 72c | 30.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 60c | 30.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 66c | 30.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 43c | 28.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 70c | 28.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 65c | 27.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 43c | 25.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 23.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 21.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.