Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7288da3278a4fb4aa78d9be575d6a5e4654d47e2ae86de6ef70773c7a57c54e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 5,198$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,240$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.66 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 1,104$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 48c | 626.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.75 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 45c | 559.11$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.83 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 52c | 311$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 298.76$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 156.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 52c | 156.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 52c | 124.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 54c | 112.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 112.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 107.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 103.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 50c | 100.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 45c | 65.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 54c | 63.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 62.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 54.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 51.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 48.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 48.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 47.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 43.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…581bbacked Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 49c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 39.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 38.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 47c | 38.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 30.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed Yes | 43c | 28.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 55c | 27.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 24.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 23.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 22.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 51c | 21.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.