Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d08b51f9d7c8aeb237f1479d75814d849d713850dfca31dc23dc8a3c8d0b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 18c | 5,843$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.57 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…7e8fbacked Under | 78c | 3,586$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 21c | 2,780$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.8 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Under | 78c | 2,146$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.07 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,956$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 1,682$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 18c | 926$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.84 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 20c | 477.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Over | 5c | 466.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…81dabacked Over | 22c | 399.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 78c | 255.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 23c | 217.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 21c | 199.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 199.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 23c | 191.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…b3b2backed Over | 6c | 190.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 30c | 132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 22c | 123.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 21c | 120.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 30c | 106.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 21c | 95.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 79c | 77.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 79c | 64.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3a…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 30c | 56.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.