Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4acb082227427a30be722d14602927e777a4800724a8698eedf88f88c1e71c71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 18,363$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 41c | 6,527$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 38c | 3,143$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.16 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Over | 66c | 1,990$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Under | 1c | 1,972$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…a940backed Over | 64c | 1,692$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 24c | 1,537$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.73 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 15c | 1,471$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 79c | 1,447$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 78c | 1,028$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 67c | 747$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.51 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 71c | 705.14$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.49 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Under | 3c | 592.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…81dabacked Over | 70c | 400$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…b5ccbacked Over | 71c | 392.59$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 56c | 312.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccc…b157backed Under | 8c | 249.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under | 15c | 243.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 237.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 227.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 9c | 219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…b3b2backed Under | 9c | 189.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Under | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…eb1dbacked Under | 19c | 176.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7206…4861backed Under | 17c | 131.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…9246backed Over | 63c | 125.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 16c | 107.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…1053backed Under | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…4be1backed Over | 72c | 88.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…8e6fbacked Under | 17c | 76.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 71c | 60.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 79c | 54.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b71…0e06backed Over | 55c | 36.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Over | 64c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.