Earnings · resolved market
Will CBRE Group (CBRE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27211249b8125a43a4b850ce763030142709ee1402ebac8b3a8543bee0cd9d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 54c | 1,157$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.74 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 45c | 882.93$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.94 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 44c | 600.44$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 44c | 582.42$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.84 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed No | 73c | 513.1$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 55c | 492$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.05 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 399.81$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 56c | 371$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 45c | 326.49$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 42c | 318.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 244.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 46c | 163$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 67c | 143.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 136.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed Yes | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed Yes | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850e…a4c0backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 56c | 66.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 31c | 63.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 50c | 41.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0222…812bbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…2adabacked No | 51c | 19.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…89afbacked No | 51c | 19.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.