MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2748845aabca6a06894864bfdd2377d2ea826fdb8a40c256e0ce8b6e2ded786a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 4,411$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 3,669$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 57c | 1,800$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 1,189$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,087$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.7 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 42c | 899.62$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 899.37$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.51 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 54c | 771.88$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.06 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 43c | 515.98$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.71 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 61c | 508.47$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.39 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 451$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 60c | 289$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 56c | 207$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 56c | 201.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 196.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 56c | 142.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 137.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 40c | 128.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 57c | 103.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…bfaabacked Over | 60c | 101.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 92.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 56.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 54c | 54.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 60c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 68c | 20.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.