MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd984bcad14228eced083f423d3d298b5f8004762ce030b816337dd8a36e42cdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 51c | 34,029$17,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,354.99 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 49c | 20,108$9,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,255.11 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 8,627$4,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,313.5 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 7,802$3,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,968.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 7,221$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 50c | 5,989$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.42 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 4,091$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 3,400$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.99 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 3,005$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 2,080$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Over | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.93 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 49c | 1,144$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.44 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,083$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 974$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.74 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 900$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 840$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 707.21$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.61 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 54c | 577.09$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.78 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 562.32$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.51 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b94…b660backed Over | 50c | 507.61$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.81 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 501.72$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 45c | 402.67$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 389$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.95 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 261$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 253.08$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 65c | 226.4$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Under | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 164.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 51c | 162$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 50c | 159.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 44c | 127.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 115.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 50c | 105.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 80.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…07a6backed Over | 47c | 76.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 75.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 51c | 62.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 49c | 46.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…0ee6backed Over | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 37.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…dc88backed Under | 50c | 31.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 53c | 30.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…da0cbacked Over | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Over | 75c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0172backed Over | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Over | 49c | 22.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 76c | 22.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 49c | 21.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7579…524abacked Over | 49c | 21.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 71c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.