MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24db3bb4a24e2ee08128ff1046badc9757ea53b7c95f12d55583d07ba3127f07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 57c | 15,000$8,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,616.37 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 2,989$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.14 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 2,357$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,566$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.67 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 868.98$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.68 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 816.2$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.43 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 586.74$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.92 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 58c | 549$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 63c | 522.88$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.41 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 78c | 472$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.06 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 318.65$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.44 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Over | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 66c | 236$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 31c | 184.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 11c | 158$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 44c | 112.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 30c | 94.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 38c | 82.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 41c | 79.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 31c | 69.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 69.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 35c | 62.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 77c | 52.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 39c | 46.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Over | 62c | 36.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 29.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 46c | 28.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 53c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 67c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 66c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.