MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35ba05c3ec08a769e62a74d409ff07203d2fc0083bf0b069bdd0665f298ec675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 2,211$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 66c | 2,124$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.75 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 38c | 831.32$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.9 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 774.63$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 40c | 668.08$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 472$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 31c | 416.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 411.78$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 69c | 387.17$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 72c | 315.67$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 28c | 256.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 179.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 171.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 59c | 135.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 131.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 131.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 122.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 55c | 81.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 76.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 69c | 71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Under | 34c | 59.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 46.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 59c | 43.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 41.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 37.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 35.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 55c | 32.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Under | 73c | 31.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…b2fcbacked Under | 73c | 31.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…c4b1backed Under | 73c | 29.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…4843backed Under | 73c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…4d52backed Under | 73c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…d255backed Under | 73c | 25.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…cffdbacked Under | 73c | 25.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…bba5backed Under | 73c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 57c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa711…a134backed Under | 73c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ab7cbacked Under | 73c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed Under | 73c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…44c4backed Under | 73c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…ba9cbacked Under | 73c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…1e56backed Under | 73c | 21.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Under | 73c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…0faebacked Under | 73c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0381…f76cbacked Under | 73c | 21.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…1f1dbacked Under | 73c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…db1fbacked Under | 73c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Under | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…0b33backed Under | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 65c | 16.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.