TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,360 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres68c2,040$1,387 inWon+$652.84,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles32c1,729$549 inLost-$548.8411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres64c1,300$835 inWon+$464.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles32c1,105$354 inLost-$353.655,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres45c978.69$441 inWon+$537.710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles55c824$453 inLost-$453.24,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles41c234.74$97 inLost-$96.558,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles38c166.46$64 inLost-$63.693,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres52c154.97$81 inWon+$74.043,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Baltimore Orioles55c145.38$80 inLost-$79.9643560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43f3…293cbacked San Diego Padres47c99$47 inWon+$52.4719550.8%99 W · 96 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Baltimore Orioles15c73.39$11 inLost-$10.721,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Baltimore Orioles40c54$22 inLost-$21.629242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Baltimore Orioles40c36$14 inLost-$14.41,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles42c24.71$10 inLost-$10.32,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres53c23.9$13 inWon+$11.216,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…4883backed San Diego Padres64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.636750.7%34 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.