TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$311,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21ec…5348backed Legacy44c31,741$14,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,123.2872453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION57c21,955$12,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,514.1976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION75c18,290$13,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,577.463,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed Legacy23c17,759$4,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,102.595438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed PARIVISION56c9,871$5,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,294.5146949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed Legacy43c9,222$3,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,965.444731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Legacy43c7,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.9935153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed PARIVISION58c6,855$3,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.896650%33 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Legacy43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.999552.6%50 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed PARIVISION57c4,615$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.2921941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed PARIVISION69c4,519$3,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.046245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed PARIVISION73c4,263$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.6412571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Legacy25c4,051$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.6422927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked PARIVISION57c4,005$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.6278963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed PARIVISION49c3,939$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.6711166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION59c3,844$2,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.8424346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8c…9a80backed Legacy60c3,499$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.091233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Legacy38c2,890$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.8383652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Legacy39c2,863$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.455,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed Legacy58c2,534$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.9214362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed Legacy42c2,323$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.944233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION57c2,249$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.9898052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…f047backed Legacy45c2,136$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-57.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Legacy42c2,133$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.8532552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed Legacy70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9929858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed PARIVISION56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9911655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Legacy34c1,902$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.512,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Legacy52c1,868$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.1911643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked PARIVISION57c1,736$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.3314144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION55c1,718$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.832,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked PARIVISION64c1,649$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.5139970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked PARIVISION44c1,642$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.5524538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe207…56c7backed PARIVISION45c1,616$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.663435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x568e…6980backed PARIVISION30c1,596$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.793627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Legacy20c1,543$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.121,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION55c1,515$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.811,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Legacy25c1,499$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.128232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked PARIVISION68c1,495$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.8940950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Legacy44c1,494$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.1516248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION44c1,449$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.0481751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Legacy45c1,436$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.851,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Legacy44c1,426$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.3933457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Legacy52c1,317$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.735,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Legacy2c1,300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Legacy53c1,286$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.8387047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Legacy44c1,254$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.8124944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Legacy46c1,201$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.946345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed PARIVISION62c1,180$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.2338835.8%139 W · 249 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked PARIVISION52c1,173$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.913,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Legacy41c1,155$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.871,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Legacy44c1,117$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.2960248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION60c1,107$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.167,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Legacy44c1,098$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.216349.7%81 W · 82 L-19.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Legacy43c1,087$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.151,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed PARIVISION37c1,051$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.718032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION53c1,051$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.44,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed PARIVISION40c1,028$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61419048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1c9…131cbacked PARIVISION56c1,023$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.266137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked PARIVISION48c1,009$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.7711947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Legacy43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Legacy45c992.6$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.6712353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked PARIVISION58c988.99$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.1681244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Legacy44c982.91$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.4823848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Legacy50c975.25$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.2827459.5%163 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Legacy44c966.4$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.2246340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b97…4d93backed Legacy44c966.4$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.228151.9%42 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed PARIVISION46c961.43$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.4149646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked PARIVISION49c928.87$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.1319030.5%58 W · 132 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION62c907.74$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.422,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION58c886.93$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.5425555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Legacy44c878.55$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.5635550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Legacy48c854.05$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.5622534.2%77 W · 148 L-19.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed PARIVISION35c849.98$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.4955845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed PARIVISION59c793.19$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32845455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed PARIVISION58c784.4$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.2522365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION49c769.93$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.452,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c5…0b0abacked Legacy35c768.07$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.883046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb020…d974backed PARIVISION57c766.75$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.714237.3%53 W · 89 L-18.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Legacy39c743.84$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.6312148.8%59 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Legacy36c724.59$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.254,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked PARIVISION63c717.11$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.42263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Legacy43c685$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3256732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed PARIVISION57c681.94$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.2322554.2%122 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b4…d45dbacked Legacy44c675.54$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.247859%46 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd1…3f34backed Legacy43c667.05$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.134355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed Legacy48c663.62$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.252458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked Legacy44c658.91$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9242050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb3…2ab3backed PARIVISION71c638.44$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.682665.4%17 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed PARIVISION55c637.67$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.9520554.1%111 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Legacy2c600.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.011973.6%7 W · 190 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-91.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed PARIVISION56c599.99$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26431444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Legacy46c583.22$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0218049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70d8…5d64backed PARIVISION57c572.12$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.0112452.4%65 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b3c…0518backed Legacy42c570.26$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.462619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed PARIVISION70c566.66$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4815373.2%112 W · 41 L+18.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7441…4891backed Legacy44c566.08$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.431361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Legacy54c563.92$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.31637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Legacy39c546.83$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7115544.5%69 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa5…e615backed PARIVISION57c542.83$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.423568.6%24 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.