TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof PARIVISION, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$226,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56c9…0d9ebacked PARIVISION75c20,294$15,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,213.6822468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Legacy51c10,513$5,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,142.857358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed Legacy55c8,534$4,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,859.184731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Legacy46c7,931$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,250.9724346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed PARIVISION56c7,763$4,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,322.4372453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION53c7,014$3,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,712.552,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Legacy74c6,788$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.6212571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION49c6,238$3,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,078.886,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Legacy37c5,849$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,710.582,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Legacy35c5,616$1,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,625.7121941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85075758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Legacy44c4,422$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.9916248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Legacy46c4,247$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,286.0639248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed Legacy39c4,122$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.6413044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Legacy64c3,976$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.625267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed PARIVISION52c3,748$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.524233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Legacy34c3,442$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.271,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Legacy37c3,278$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.661,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Legacy38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.9946949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Legacy38c2,833$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.2988746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked Legacy60c2,752$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.998342.2%35 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed PARIVISION47c2,612$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.2320838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked PARIVISION31c2,339$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.431,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Legacy46c2,119$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.629552.6%50 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Legacy24c1,881$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.6122927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Legacy43c1,876$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.9849646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked PARIVISION59c1,843$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.99343%40 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Legacy33c1,841$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.161,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION46c1,805$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.521,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Legacy57c1,801$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.0139970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Legacy42c1,763$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.5235850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Legacy41c1,703$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.975,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION44c1,678$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.432,20547.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L-4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked PARIVISION46c1,466$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.353,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x568e…6980backed PARIVISION48c1,419$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.113627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x008b…c1cfbacked Legacy59c1,374$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.296355.6%35 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION43c1,327$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.544,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Legacy43c1,256$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.6648437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Legacy42c1,253$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.841,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe6d…9d6abacked PARIVISION10c1,230$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.988047.5%38 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked PARIVISION60c1,222$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.4127041.1%111 W · 159 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked PARIVISION48c1,207$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.5212148.8%59 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed PARIVISION41c1,184$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.8810133.7%34 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked PARIVISION33c1,171$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7617148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION35c1,102$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.893,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed PARIVISION27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked Legacy50c968.4$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.379258.7%54 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked PARIVISION52c933.85$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.619355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed Legacy70c875.14$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.545438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Legacy41c860.5$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.651,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked PARIVISION28c849.64$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.934542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked PARIVISION41c842.31$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3517042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION53c812.32$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.415,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef66…f839backed PARIVISION50c812.02$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.613036.9%48 W · 82 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed PARIVISION63c773.85$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.9611166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8c5…0b0abacked PARIVISION55c712.68$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.53046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Legacy40c706.49$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.4819030.5%58 W · 132 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION48c705.42$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.032,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked PARIVISION53c699.98$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9994445.7%431 W · 513 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed PARIVISION59c698.55$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.297152.1%37 W · 34 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION42c694.91$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.581751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked PARIVISION50c675$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.519741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed PARIVISION36c663.46$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2545455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70d8…5d64backed PARIVISION59c661.29$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.1612452.4%65 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Legacy52c642.66$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1338054.5%207 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Legacy59c641.78$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.1333457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION55c609.94$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.5797952.4%513 W · 466 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed PARIVISION54c588.27$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5746340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked PARIVISION2c585.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75211.5%6 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Legacy40c570.11$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.854,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked PARIVISION57c566.01$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.6315355.6%85 W · 68 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked PARIVISION45c537.22$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.7518049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed PARIVISION52c531.12$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.1834156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…94d9backed PARIVISION46c528.5$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.81435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5501…fe9abacked PARIVISION44c525.04$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.9718736.9%69 W · 118 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Legacy66c510.27$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6965250.5%329 W · 323 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5c…2ee3backed PARIVISION38c507.23$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.642839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Legacy40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30053244.9%239 W · 293 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked PARIVISION63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31581244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed PARIVISION62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31019247.9%92 W · 100 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked PARIVISION61c492.49$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8235550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed PARIVISION73c490.69$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.9627259.2%161 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Legacy40c482$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.218454.3%100 W · 84 L+16.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1eb5…6fe9backed PARIVISION45c440$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810061%61 W · 39 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed PARIVISION70c427.49$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0537445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked PARIVISION50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed PARIVISION50c399$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.519048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b1a…c345backed PARIVISION59c397.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.811520%3 W · 12 L-5.0wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-64%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed PARIVISION30c388.8$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.954,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf755…8e37backed PARIVISION77c377.29$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.824944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5782…8ce5backed PARIVISION58c375.37$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.713253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed PARIVISION52c373.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2436554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION31c372.51$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.382,60352.6%1,370 W · 1,233 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked PARIVISION3c362.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.251943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed PARIVISION50c358.9$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4550846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked PARIVISION46c354.63$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.577749.4%38 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed PARIVISION56c348.88$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3731452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed PARIVISION28c341.71$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.683540%14 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed PARIVISION42c323.34$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.824641.9%103 W · 143 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.