Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27c2f3159d25842cbdb8ef1a8914be3a793c61e3779cdd5df1057b6dcf6856b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 63c | 344.77$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 35c | 297.19$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.23 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 243.88$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 233.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 21c | 233.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.52 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 40c | 225.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 23c | 208.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 38c | 202.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 51c | 183.43$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 174.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 165.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 159.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 152.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.57 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 56c | 151$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 45c | 122.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 53c | 113.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 112$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 33c | 111.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 48c | 105.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 76c | 103.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 22c | 100.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 100.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 100.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 99.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 97.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 27c | 88.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 83.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 28c | 83.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 76.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 66.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 63.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 62.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 41c | 58.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 57.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed Yes | 35c | 56.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 56.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 53.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 47.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 44.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…3537backed No | 68c | 42.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 41.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 40.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 39.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 36c | 36.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 34.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 34.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 32.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 61c | 32.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 40c | 31.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…d674backed Yes | 37c | 30.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 30.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 29.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 28.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 42c | 24.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed No | 72c | 20.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…e1c0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 56c | 18.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 61c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…3fd5backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 72c | 16.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 80c | 16.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3c23backed No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea1…e84ebacked No | 68c | 15.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.