Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9695d6fa6dc6d91c35e31d1e0d108ed96371a3f0379178ec4803d15790f9e8a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9df4…b77bbacked Yes | 2c | 553.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 71c | 473.55$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.16 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 436.53$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 412$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 243.5$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 232.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed No | 74c | 196.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 16c | 187.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 9c | 186.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 186.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 174.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 18c | 155$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 17c | 154.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 25c | 136.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 117.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 28c | 104.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 103.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 91.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 85.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 53c | 84.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 81.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 18c | 80.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 79.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 78.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 76.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 75.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 69.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 59.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 78c | 58.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 55.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 43.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 80c | 43.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 42.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 28c | 42.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 26c | 40.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 40.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 38.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 79c | 36.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 29.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 42c | 24.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…3fd5backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…108fbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 17.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.