Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27de7c42618dbfafea01f7383d23ec90b93f09f0037947802c20e2ad0c4f294c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f43…53fabacked Yes | 2c | 635.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 333.93$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 65c | 302.29$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 12c | 163.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 159.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 35c | 156.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 130.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 114.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 100.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 95.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 85.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 73.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 73.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 32c | 72.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 33c | 66.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 60.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 52.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 36c | 49.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 49.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 49.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 47.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 45.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 44.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 61c | 43.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 42.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 42.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 34.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 34.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1d22backed Yes | 37c | 33.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 33c | 32.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 29.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 27.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 73c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed No | 70c | 18.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 67c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.