Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x887ba9669c13136412f5df62a2c43723a567f0e486216f0ce23b734b0d91bd15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f5a…d4bcbacked No | 1c | 1,396$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 37c | 658.93$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.94 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 491.71$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 459.02$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 219.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…9e2abacked Yes | 63c | 190.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 165.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 161.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 7c | 159.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 153$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 134.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 68c | 119.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 118.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 117.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 56c | 106.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 45c | 89.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 44c | 83.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 81.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 70c | 71.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 55c | 70.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 68.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 63c | 65.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 23c | 65.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 62.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 57.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 54c | 53.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 52.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 51.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 54c | 50.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 23c | 46.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 43c | 44.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 44c | 40.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 40.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 39.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 78c | 38.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 35.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 80c | 35.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 52c | 35.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 35.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 53c | 33.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 27.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 25.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 57c | 22.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 57c | 22.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1d22backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 59c | 18.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.