Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28a6c964c4414b22288170cedd40885bee665b8d77d67f9f23bab12f3fadadc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,626 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 18c | 4,841$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.14 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 18c | 2,980$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.33 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Over | 20c | 2,250$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 19c | 1,250$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 150 | 30.7%46 W · 104 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 978.8$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.88 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 44c | 799.99$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 70c | 756.82$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.38 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 445.14$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 56c | 355.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 353 | 47.6%168 W · 185 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 315.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…073fbacked Over | 47c | 270.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 24c | 262.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Over | 20c | 249.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 122 | 36.1%44 W · 78 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 78c | 216.76$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 24c | 207.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Over | 20c | 165.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…ec7abacked Over | 19c | 165.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 31c | 159.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 80c | 138.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 132.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 19c | 130.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 121.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1557…04afbacked Under | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 29c | 111.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 45c | 111.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…cf8cbacked Over | 19c | 96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 51c | 94.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Under | 65c | 81.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 38c | 73.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 75c | 72.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Under | 77c | 70.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 34c | 48.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…0af4backed Over | 52c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Under | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…191dbacked Over | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.