Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf79f83e99716d0f1f5aefa843dc9bdef4f0b2d014772154ed6b893680099db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 4,914$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.53 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 18c | 2,358$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.82 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 79c | 1,910$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.1 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 19c | 999.88$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 19c | 970.31$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 150 | 30.7%46 W · 104 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 22c | 778.2$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 70c | 755.15$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 28c | 585.14$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Under | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 13c | 476.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 75c | 440.15$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 411.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…88c4backed Under | 20c | 375.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 25c | 358.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 73c | 337.27$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…073fbacked Over | 75c | 327.72$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…4777backed Over | 73c | 274$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 204.8$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Over | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 25c | 98.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…b1f8backed Over | 80c | 72.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 119 | 69.7%83 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Under | 27c | 61.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…d412backed Over | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…6a26backed Over | 80c | 49.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2c…918bbacked Under | 21c | 49.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…9802backed Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…af80backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 76c | 36.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 75c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.