Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce43f5e0bbe3ef6d8347e04e921b9c420d428bac9613febc23f24a721e37cb94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Manchester City FC, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,352 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Manchester City FC | 24c | 51,272$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 51,030$39,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,626.84 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…da86backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 12,329$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 12,252$9,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,989.48 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nottingham Forest FC | 75c | 7,335$5,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.16 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Nottingham Forest FC | 75c | 5,454$4,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.47 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Manchester City FC | 22c | 4,977$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.86 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 4,700$3,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Manchester City FC | 24c | 4,143$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 2,821$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.95 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 2,524$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 2,248$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.11 | 150 | 30.7%46 W · 104 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Manchester City FC | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 725.04$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.68 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cc…7c02backed Manchester City FC | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 680.01$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Manchester City FC | 24c | 628.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Nottingham Forest FC | 72c | 606.3$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.83 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 568.31$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Manchester City FC | 19c | 527.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nottingham Forest FC | 74c | 522.41$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Manchester City FC | 22c | 310.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 270.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 262$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 253 | 48.2%122 W · 131 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 260$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 251.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 201.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Manchester City FC | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Manchester City FC | 25c | 152$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 138.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Manchester City FC | 23c | 132.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 117.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Manchester City FC | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 102.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 102$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Manchester City FC | 22c | 88.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester City FC | 22c | 79.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 69.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Manchester City FC | 21c | 67.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Manchester City FC | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 64.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Manchester City FC | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Manchester City FC | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Manchester City FC | 22c | 46.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 39.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 34.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 76 | 63.2%48 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb86…7dc4backed Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d51…7317backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Nottingham Forest FC | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…2da0backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…6562backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.