TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes54c2,759$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.6610539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes57c1,396$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.681,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes43c1,017$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.961,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes47c881.54$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.944,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No5c818$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.471,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes47c800.54$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c474.51$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.185,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c439$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.774,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No50c435$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.244,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No57c350.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.71,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No57c341.9$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.871,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No32c341.82$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.836,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c316.87$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No34c308.87$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.894,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes48c293.46$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.464839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes65c229.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.732839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No33c179.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No35c174.47$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8711731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c169.9$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.595,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes39c168.92$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.51,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No42c167.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2957948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes52c162$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes58c152.04$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2416045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0493…8d1cbacked No47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No50c141.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.071,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes57c141$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.153,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No39c132.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.171,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No33c123.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.822,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes42c111.26$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.089,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes58c106.14$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c105.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.872,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes64c105.03$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.795,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c101$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.539,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3321950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.515545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes56c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c93.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.071,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No43c92.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.682,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes78c90.41$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.772,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes56c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes56c88.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5713351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No47c82.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.631,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c80.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.463,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No60c79.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3611958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No38c78.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No52c76.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.751,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No52c75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes49c70.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No49c70.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.442,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4f…1f77backed Yes76c66.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.14887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No61c65.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2387629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No51c64.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.861,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No47c64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes56c62.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4133350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes74c59.46$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.466753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No53c57.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes51c55.23$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2390555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes49c55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.051,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes52c53.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0845540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes64c52.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes46c51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked No46c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4670%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes55c50.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.342,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.553855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2215246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x717f…3fb1backed Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa5…c42fbacked Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…2dcabacked No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.56150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.516946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.59848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c49.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.780050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed Yes45c48.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.413852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c47.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes42c47.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1962137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No37c45.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.812,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No55c44.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.172,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No52c44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x816d…47d0backed Yes70c43.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.163278.1%25 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No63c39.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed No60c39.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7813950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes59c39.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1527756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427a…4e18backed Yes42c39.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.77229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No42c37.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.912,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c37.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.243,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes54c36.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6452446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No53c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.221,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.76,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes57c31.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.796243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2512334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.