Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28e4d1deefcaf189e52853480ed36046180f9243f5cf82e465336b7055007977
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 299.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 268.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 77c | 244.32$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 241.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 233$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 77c | 232.22$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 20c | 218.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 210.56$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 178.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 162.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 21c | 147.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 146.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 50c | 142.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 130.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 53c | 130.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 37c | 124.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 25c | 121.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 28c | 112.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 105.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 51c | 105.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 104.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 44c | 95.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc591…5088backed Yes | 15c | 87.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 70.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 22c | 67.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 26c | 59.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 26c | 58.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 58.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 56.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 55.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 55.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 53.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 46.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 45.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 25c | 45.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 44.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 24c | 43.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 43.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 43.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 41.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 27c | 40.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 39.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 37.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 31.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 40c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…af67backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.