Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94afc15ad4256ce8a51a0103691430d05bf4b0fb60bcbd63827901e25052b01e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 7c | 1,430$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 415.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 42c | 302.81$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.16 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 46c | 285$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 253.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 248.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 79c | 241.5$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 220.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 54c | 215.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 177.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 175.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 171.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 159.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 57c | 156.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 20c | 145.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 52c | 140.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 128.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 76c | 117.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 116.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 43c | 112.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 103.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 56c | 98.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 53c | 93.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 44c | 93.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 25c | 87.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 65c | 86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 85.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 79.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 46c | 70.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 70.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 67.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 43c | 58.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 58.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 43c | 53.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 51.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 50.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 45c | 49.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 42c | 47.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 45.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 39.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 39.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 37c | 37.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 37.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 50c | 33.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 29.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 25.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 24.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 44c | 22.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 53c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 19.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 76c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…abe3backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.