Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28feab7e566f3cf06a1c0425791480ce138fec884a219b0b7f23187151e0c7c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 56c | 11,893$6,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,240.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed Over | 45c | 8,833$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 5,314$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.73 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 11c | 4,834$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.74 | 136 | 30.9%42 W · 94 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 45c | 3,121$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 41c | 1,462$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.45 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +115%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 3c | 1,209$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,079$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.56 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…47cbbacked Over | 1c | 1,024$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Over | 54c | 900$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 44c | 409.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 9c | 397.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 64c | 395.81$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.37 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 46c | 367.58$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.82 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 15c | 330.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 141 | 28.4%40 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 58c | 310$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 36c | 279.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…d300backed Under | 58c | 208.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…36a2backed Over | 12c | 201.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 64c | 156.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 52c | 147.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under | 43c | 145.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…60aebacked Over | 49c | 143.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Over | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 101.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 34c | 91.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…94ccbacked Over | 29c | 85.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 48c | 77.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 72.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…6743backed Under | 60c | 58.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 43c | 56.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…c103backed Over | 49c | 51.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…96e8backed Over | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903a…316bbacked Over | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 55c | 47.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 51c | 46.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ea…ff50backed Under | 55c | 43.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ff…d0dfbacked Over | 49c | 40.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Under | 57c | 39.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 76c | 35.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…c0debacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…af82backed Under | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781d…201bbacked Under | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 35c | 29.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 117 | 12%14 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1020…580ebacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 5.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.