NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29085c76e5017c068fae4465909f4ecc0ab2d956a150fef32c7fa7e935fed196
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Wild, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Wild | 38c | 508.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.54 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Wild | 29c | 275.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Wild | 25c | 263.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ducks | 11c | 241.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Ducks | 75c | 214.7$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Ducks | 68c | 196.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 62c | 194.09$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Wild | 29c | 170.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wild | 67c | 163.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Ducks | 71c | 159.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Ducks | 71c | 150.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Ducks | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wild | 73c | 116.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Wild | 39c | 79.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29a…7816backed Ducks | 71c | 55.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ducks | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 65c | 50.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…e45abacked Wild | 24c | 50.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Wild | 46c | 42.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Ducks | 71c | 41.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Wild | 29c | 40.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Wild | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Ducks | 75c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Ducks | 73c | 22.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Ducks | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Ducks | 71c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. WildWild won
- Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.