NBA · resolved market
Spread: Clippers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x294b17139f379667ed083fa2d8d528ecfa964fc276687424a58a4d9bdd916b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Clippers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $509,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $511,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Clippers | 51c | 475,543$242,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242,516.61 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 49c | 296,276$145,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151,100.99 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Nuggets | 49c | 150,000$73,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,500 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Nuggets | 51c | 10,339$5,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,066.22 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 9,999$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.49 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 49c | 4,495$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,777$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.03 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 2,303$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.63 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa392…1415backed Nuggets | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…2ff4backed Clippers | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 29c | 1,489$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Clippers | 31c | 1,022$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.53 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Clippers | 50c | 998$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Nuggets | 50c | 996$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Clippers | 52c | 774.51$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Clippers | 11c | 652.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe2…42d4backed Nuggets | 51c | 648.32$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Nuggets | 49c | 587.02$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.38 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Nuggets | 51c | 565.45$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.07 | 226 | 46.9%106 W · 120 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Clippers | 51c | 451.06$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.1 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Nuggets | 49c | 442.86$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.86 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Clippers | 49c | 417.3$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.05 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Nuggets | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Clippers | 51c | 396$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Nuggets | 50c | 338.8$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Clippers | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Clippers | 24c | 288$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers | 50c | 276$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Nuggets | 79c | 254$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Clippers | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Nuggets | 51c | 221.45$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Nuggets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…12f3backed Nuggets | 49c | 202.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets | 49c | 127.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 52c | 116.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Nuggets | 49c | 108.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Nuggets | 39c | 106.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 104.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b5…b26dbacked Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Clippers | 49c | 99.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Clippers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Nuggets | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d81…20c3backed Clippers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed Clippers | 52c | 95.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…1ff9backed Clippers | 52c | 88.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Clippers | 52c | 77.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Clippers | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5457backed Nuggets | 77c | 64.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…e466backed Nuggets | 50c | 63.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…6a8bbacked Nuggets | 78c | 63.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…f373backed Nuggets | 79c | 63.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…527bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 62.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Clippers | 51c | 56.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Nuggets | 49c | 51.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Nuggets | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Clippers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Nuggets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Nuggets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Nuggets | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Nuggets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 176 | 50%88 W · 88 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdf…b929backed Clippers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Nuggets | 50c | 35.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Nuggets | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Clippers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…e480backed Clippers | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Clippers | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…b4fabacked Nuggets | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…88a3backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-0.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Brook Lopez: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Clippers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 208.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 209.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 210.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 211.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5Over won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Clippers (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Clippers (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.