NBA · resolved market

Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120a4d92a1f7b1dbbcd423e53a5db6e8af20a30bf6e837bd8412a2029ec0b54a

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $195,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $194,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,229 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1d8a…e842backed Over	56c	93,722$52,069 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41,652.97	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+3.5wins	+0.14per pick	54cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	44c	55,715$24,610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,610.09	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	44c	47,392$20,932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,932.22	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	56c	13,505$7,630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,874.69	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	56c	11,164$6,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,903.8	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Over	57c	7,025$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,025.05	208	49.5%103 W · 105 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Under	45c	6,691$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	174	54%94 W · 80 L	+6.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over	55c	5,400$2,970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,430	245	49%120 W · 125 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	44c	4,424$1,953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,952.8	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Under	45c	3,280$1,485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,484.94	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Over	55c	2,500$1,362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,137.47	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Under	44c	2,343$1,031 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,031.5	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	43c	2,288$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.9	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under	44c	2,273$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	564	53.9%304 W · 260 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7deb…2682backed Under	46c	2,174$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Under	46c	2,110$971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$970.79	151	41.1%62 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Under	45c	2,028$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.32	121	43.8%53 W · 68 L	-6.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Under	45c	2,018$908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$908.29	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691b…fce0backed Over	55c	1,998$1,091 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$907.07	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over	53c	1,882$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$882.26	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Under	45c	1,742$788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.07	139	45.3%63 W · 76 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a5…f0a8backed Under	44c	1,592$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.65	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	34c	1,502$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.26	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	44c	1,322$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.86	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xadec…88fdbacked Over	56c	1,254$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$551.76	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over	55c	1,234$677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c7…4138backed Over	56c	1,149$644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.69	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fff…479fbacked Under	44c	1,126$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.11	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cea…03d4backed Under	44c	888.63$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+4.3wins	+0.12per pick	33cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	44c	779.16$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.52	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Under	46c	730$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.8	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under	46c	726.17$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.04	226	43.8%99 W · 127 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over	56c	714.58$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.41	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c54…da2cbacked Under	46c	692.31$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.57	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under	44c	575.04$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.02	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Under	46c	521.74$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	232	56.9%132 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under	48c	503.62$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.74	293	52.6%154 W · 139 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+26%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	44c	400$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.44	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Under	44c	364.42$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.2	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Over	56c	334.89$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.97	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Under	46c	322.57$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.69	216	45.8%99 W · 117 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc5…b83abacked Over	80c	299$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.8	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	48c	278.14$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.98	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Over	54c	277.78$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.78	253	47%119 W · 134 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Under	45c	243.21$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.99	260	43.8%114 W · 146 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under	22c	242.25$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	353	26.6%94 W · 259 L	+21.9wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+31%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Under	45c	237.21$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.52	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Over	55c	227.27$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.27	188	52.7%99 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f6…6a9bbacked Under	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	80	55%44 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82da…12f3backed Over	55c	212.64$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.76	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Under	48c	207.29$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	82	32.9%27 W · 55 L	-15.2wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	137	49.6%68 W · 69 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…9f2cbacked Under	43c	178$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.72	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over	56c	168.03$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.81	1,003	51%512 W · 491 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	54c	163.85$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.37	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e57…2bf6backed Under	44c	136.36$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	125	49.6%62 W · 63 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5dd…98febacked Under	45c	115.56$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	56c	108.1$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.56	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed Under	45c	102.31$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.04	219	48.9%107 W · 112 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5297…0f68backed Under	44c	72.22$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Under	46c	71.74$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Under	44c	70.52$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.16	164	43.9%72 W · 92 L	-9.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Under	44c	70.52$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.16	150	40%60 W · 90 L	-14.1wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over	55c	70$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Under	51c	65.51$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.41	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfdb…f0a5backed Under	46c	65$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b79…a497backed Over	55c	61.98$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.78	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under	46c	55.45$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.51	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Over	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	412	51%210 W · 202 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7280…fbd1backed Under	45c	40.22$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x985e…6894backed Over	56c	37.58$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.46	107	61.7%66 W · 41 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under	45c	35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	454	60.4%274 W · 180 L	+21.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Over	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	410	48.3%198 W · 212 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3526…8b74backed Under	44c	27.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	147	51.7%76 W · 71 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Over	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b9…470fbacked Under	45c	27.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Under	45c	26.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	251	43%108 W · 143 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec18…8eb4backed Under	48c	26.28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5this page
1H Spread: Clippers (-0.5)Nuggets won
1H Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Nuggets won
1H Spread: Clippers (-3.5)Nuggets won
Brook Lopez: Points O/U 6.5No won
Clippers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Clippers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
Clippers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 208.5Over won
Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 209.5Over won
Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 210.5Over won
Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 211.5Over won
Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5Over won
Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5Over won
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5No won
James Harden: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 15.5No won
Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 22.5No won
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Clippers (-5.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Clippers (-6.5)Nuggets won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Clippers vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event