NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295d0218d068604d1f0a606da770dbc2bbce146c8b57efc520cca61a6d28d62d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Spurs | 53c | 176,925$94,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,287.33 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Kings | 47c | 105,000$48,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,950 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 45c | 42,438$19,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,210.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 47c | 17,098$7,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,999.04 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kings | 46c | 5,055$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.3 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Spurs | 58c | 3,172$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.36 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 41c | 2,838$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.58 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Spurs | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.98 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 42c | 1,728$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 46c | 1,497$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.47 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Spurs | 51c | 1,255$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.15 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 39c | 1,161$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.8 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Kings | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Kings | 41c | 999.32$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.26 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Spurs | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Spurs | 62c | 802.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.13 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Spurs | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 48c | 584$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…b310backed Spurs | 63c | 539.3$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.54 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Spurs | 56c | 430.36$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.36 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 40c | 402.91$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Spurs | 64c | 288.11$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Kings | 49c | 235$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 39c | 230.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Spurs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Spurs | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…d8cabacked Spurs | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…d70cbacked Spurs | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 40c | 115.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Kings | 38c | 109.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Kings | 44c | 107.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Spurs | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Spurs | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Spurs | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…7b85backed Spurs | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Spurs | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kings | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6881…525dbacked Spurs | 77c | 60.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings | 23c | 60.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked Spurs | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…4d91backed Spurs | 63c | 47.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Spurs | 63c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Spurs | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Spurs | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Spurs | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Spurs | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…f84ebacked Kings | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9802…4c0dbacked Spurs | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…44febacked Spurs | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…947cbacked Spurs | 54c | 18.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Spurs | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4d…b18bbacked Spurs | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)this page
- Kings vs. SpursSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Under won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Under won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Under won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.