Serie A · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296077879fcedc7e5a1b7073e96e553982ef4cb636b7e9f42babe6b7f0095c27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 12,997$10,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,608.18 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 20c | 10,441$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.61 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 21c | 6,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Yes | 21c | 5,100$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…5382backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.7 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 4c | 4,564$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 4,000$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 3,340$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.68 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,205$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.62 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…525abacked Yes | 21c | 2,381$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 5c | 2,091$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed No | 78c | 2,011$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.52 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…71f0backed No | 80c | 1,707$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 79c | 1,600$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,330$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed No | 79c | 1,303$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 18c | 1,208$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.42 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,035$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 5c | 786.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 733$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 20c | 644.8$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…b7cdbacked Yes | 8c | 505$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…b26abacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 80c | 461.71$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…b8ffbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…be97backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Yes | 20c | 412$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 21c | 399.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 5c | 364.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 168 | 19.6%33 W · 135 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 6c | 303.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 175 | 29.1%51 W · 124 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 21c | 280$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Yes | 17c | 276$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 79c | 250$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 15c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked No | 80c | 150.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 137$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 20c | 125.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…f32fbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 122.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…c9aebacked Yes | 21c | 101.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7eb…a668backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 20c | 97.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 96.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 21c | 78.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…f2c1backed Yes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 21c | 58.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…b461backed Yes | 21c | 56.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…b135backed No | 79c | 50.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked No | 80c | 37.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 80c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?No won
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.