TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuxi: Tung-Lin Wu vs James McCabe

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
James McCabeof Tung-Lin Wu, James McCabe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac87…43acbacked Tung-Lin Wu0c36,462$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Tung-Lin Wu27c10,583$2,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.178,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed James McCabe76c10,405$7,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,486.465560%33 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked James McCabe62c4,433$2,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.5411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed James McCabe28c3,500$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.9927431.8%87 W · 187 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed James McCabe71c2,967$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.0417359.5%103 W · 70 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c28…5759backed Tung-Lin Wu60c2,799$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Tung-Lin Wu23c2,785$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.54,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed James McCabe75c2,609$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.2462061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed James McCabe39c1,748$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.154,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed James McCabe72c1,567$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.784,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tung-Lin Wu32c1,294$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.712,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Tung-Lin Wu32c1,041$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.511,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Tung-Lin Wu31c970.96$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.395,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed James McCabe71c904.81$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.559,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Tung-Lin Wu16c904.29$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6965558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Tung-Lin Wu12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015039.3%59 W · 91 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Tung-Lin Wu32c765.61$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24513946.8%65 W · 74 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed James McCabe67c759.15$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.988,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Tung-Lin Wu34c757.65$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.64,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Tung-Lin Wu33c749.87$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25084736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa838…bccebacked James McCabe70c714.28$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.286264.5%40 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcae…fe45backed Tung-Lin Wu30c700$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2073762.2%23 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed James McCabe63c612.21$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7928348.4%137 W · 146 L+1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed James McCabe43c521.03$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9958639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked James McCabe67c499.99$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16530857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed James McCabe42c473.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2125957.1%148 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed James McCabe41c414.83$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.2337235.2%131 W · 241 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed James McCabe70c410$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12335164.1%225 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb943…375bbacked Tung-Lin Wu50c399.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9117649.4%87 W · 89 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed James McCabe67c376.89$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8816258.6%95 W · 67 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked James McCabe40c375$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22558931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2381…ebe4backed James McCabe68c362.6$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.65959.3%35 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Tung-Lin Wu28c299.58$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.284,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed James McCabe32c289.56$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5557321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc774…f218backed James McCabe70c282.86$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8635753.8%192 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked James McCabe36c224.98$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9947956.6%271 W · 208 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e1…f17fbacked Tung-Lin Wu59c207.82$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.424463.5%155 W · 89 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked James McCabe74c202.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.737071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Tung-Lin Wu53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10652341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf516…4c5abacked James McCabe64c188.51$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.512352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed James McCabe40c186$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.87,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed James McCabe68c180.3$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8156070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74c…1f49backed James McCabe75c166.66$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6614674%108 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed James McCabe68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e02…d9e2backed Tung-Lin Wu34c142.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Tung-Lin Wu22c136.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked James McCabe76c131.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.162,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Tung-Lin Wu33c129.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.261,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Tung-Lin Wu37c115.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.311,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Tung-Lin Wu34c108$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.725,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f9…c741backed Tung-Lin Wu29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Tung-Lin Wu35c102.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.036,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed James McCabe43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Tung-Lin Wu58c96.01$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.694,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Tung-Lin Wu34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.663746%293 W · 344 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked James McCabe44c80.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6432853%174 W · 154 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed James McCabe41c80.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.771,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Tung-Lin Wu38c80.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.431,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6477…4243backed James McCabe37c77.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.544045%18 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ba…cf3fbacked Tung-Lin Wu61c76.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Tung-Lin Wu34c76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.844,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Tung-Lin Wu57c72.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.522,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked James McCabe42c71.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.42,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed James McCabe41c65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3516529.1%48 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked James McCabe79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.296262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Tung-Lin Wu18c61.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Tung-Lin Wu24c60.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2428835.1%101 W · 187 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Tung-Lin Wu58c60.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3538262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed James McCabe39c58.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.953,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked James McCabe26c57.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6949943.5%217 W · 282 L+2.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Tung-Lin Wu55c54.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3043951.9%228 W · 211 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f7…b944backed Tung-Lin Wu29c53.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.412015%3 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-66.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45cf…0f46backed Tung-Lin Wu31c43.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.238721.8%19 W · 68 L-12.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-51.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked James McCabe47c40.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6654345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed James McCabe39c37.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.721,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Tung-Lin Wu34c36.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4136944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked James McCabe80c35.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3363052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f7…a181backed James McCabe41c35.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6251347%241 W · 272 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked James McCabe65c34.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1925763.4%163 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Tung-Lin Wu58c34.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7531563.5%200 W · 115 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec6c…c407backed James McCabe43c33.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.274327.9%12 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Tung-Lin Wu61c33.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2088560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Tung-Lin Wu77c32.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520565.4%134 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ff…e3dfbacked James McCabe42c31.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.237042.9%30 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Tung-Lin Wu34c30.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Tung-Lin Wu62c30.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8949955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed James McCabe69c28.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6817554.9%96 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Tung-Lin Wu64c27.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3578350.3%394 W · 389 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfd…ba99backed Tung-Lin Wu59c27.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.874334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7bc…9d49backed James McCabe72c26.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.335869%40 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36cf…d3aebacked James McCabe42c26.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1944946.1%207 W · 242 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc444…5eeabacked James McCabe77c25.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9423073.9%170 W · 60 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick78cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed James McCabe78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa36f…dbcfbacked Tung-Lin Wu64c24.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.415463%34 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed James McCabe65c23.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.443067%288 W · 142 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Tung-Lin Wu67c23.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1580341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed James McCabe74c22.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.775549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50ad…1588backed James McCabe62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61650%8 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa233…dfe8backed Tung-Lin Wu59c19.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2616350.9%83 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.