Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: NS Team vs Rostik Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2989d8c831259bf59c13aaf73bbfa8989922b206b2d9ce4b93451d8894368958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rostik Teamof NS Team, Rostik Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Rostik Team | 78c | 3,025$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.45 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Rostik Team | 46c | 2,887$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.31 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed NS Team | 34c | 1,807$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.92 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked NS Team | 47c | 1,505$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NS Team | 64c | 1,489$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.63 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed NS Team | 57c | 1,121$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.73 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Rostik Team | 50c | 1,043$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.42 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Rostik Team | 70c | 939.55$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.22 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed NS Team | 24c | 712.18$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked NS Team | 40c | 707.12$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.7 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Rostik Team | 65c | 630.07$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…873ebacked NS Team | 33c | 605.33$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.08 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked NS Team | 25c | 500.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked NS Team | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed NS Team | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2b…cec3backed NS Team | 63c | 467.54$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.55 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed NS Team | 34c | 337.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked NS Team | 26c | 332.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed NS Team | 37c | 298.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed NS Team | 45c | 295.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…05e5backed Rostik Team | 76c | 261.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed NS Team | 63c | 250$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.24 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Rostik Team | 69c | 249.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…f520backed Rostik Team | 74c | 241.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…e1e3backed Rostik Team | 52c | 223$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed NS Team | 28c | 207.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Rostik Team | 54c | 172.21$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…4d80backed Rostik Team | 39c | 157.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed NS Team | 67c | 134.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5233…eb29backed Rostik Team | 75c | 133.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed NS Team | 33c | 125.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NS Team | 44c | 121$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked NS Team | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Rostik Team | 57c | 109.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed NS Team | 37c | 107.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…998bbacked NS Team | 31c | 107.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rostik Team | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…44a0backed NS Team | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Rostik Team | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed NS Team | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked NS Team | 25c | 98.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked NS Team | 63c | 89.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed NS Team | 21c | 83.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked NS Team | 38c | 78.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed NS Team | 44c | 76.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…c931backed Rostik Team | 71c | 75.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked NS Team | 33c | 75.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa050…1346backed Rostik Team | 32c | 71.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked NS Team | 32c | 60.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed NS Team | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…857abacked Rostik Team | 73c | 54.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed NS Team | 51c | 51.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked NS Team | 67c | 50.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Rostik Team | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked NS Team | 50c | 44.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed NS Team | 63c | 41.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed Rostik Team | 63c | 40.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Rostik Team | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed NS Team | 28c | 39.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed NS Team | 68c | 35.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked NS Team | 33c | 34.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…b35bbacked NS Team | 48c | 29.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Rostik Team | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Rostik Team | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed NS Team | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Rostik Team | 59c | 17.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: NS Team vs Rostik Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: NS Team vs Rostik Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group ANS Team won
- Dota 2: NS Team vs Rostik Team - Game 2 WinnerNS Team won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.