Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a53f6ebb024a88f53a022f3f2a0bf1a7dd17acaa2735de99dd902e12713d873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 80c | 790.65$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.72 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 416.44$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 51c | 327.4$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.06 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 16c | 153.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 153$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 146.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 68c | 144.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 119.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 111.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 27c | 110.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 67c | 84.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…2f98backed Yes | 29c | 75.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 75.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 72.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 72.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 41c | 66.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 55.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 55.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed Yes | 75c | 50.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 50.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 34c | 50.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 49.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 67c | 47.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 47.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 36c | 38.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 36.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 34c | 35.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 50c | 35.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 64c | 21.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 21.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 20.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed No | 68c | 14.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.